The Nigerian Industrial Behemoth That Could Reshape the African Economy | Odd Lots

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 11:31:16 +0000

Earlier in August, it was reported that Nigeria's Dangote Refinery secured a $1 billion underwriting for its upcoming stock market listing, which is set to become Africa's largest IPO. Indeed, the whole continent has seen lots of economic growth in the last few years: According to the United Nations, growth across Africa was expected to reach 4.0% in 2026. The history of economic development on the continent is a vexed one; access to critical resources, whether its minerals or petrochemicals, has not always equated to improved economic conditions. To understand what is going on in Africa, we talk to Joe Studwell, the author of How Africa Works: Success and Failure on the World's Last Developmental Frontier. The product of a decade of reporting, Studwell's book argues that African countries, in many instances, have failed to adopt development strategies (an industrial policy that favors export manufacturing, for instance) that mirror Asian counterparts. And while development has been uneven, Studwell is optimistic that the seeds of sustained development are increasingly taking root, at least in some countries. We speak to Studwell about the Dangote IPO, why development has historically been so difficult, Rwanda's dreams of becoming Africa's Singapore, and why Lagos is one of the most impressive cities in the world.

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Chapters:
00:00:00 - Cold Open
00:01:10 - Introduction and Economic Convergence Theory vs Reality
00:04:05 - Guest Introduction: Joe Studwell
00:05:01 - The Dangote Empire: From Cement to Oil
00:09:46 - Population Density as Development Driver
00:11:06 - The Economics of Population Density
00:13:09 - Nigeria's Performance and Potential
00:15:01 - African Big Companies vs. Small Business Development
00:17:38 - Development Models
00:19:27 - Manufacturing Complexity and Progress
00:21:45 - Studwell’s Research Methodology and Scope
00:24:22 - China's Impact on African Manufacturing
00:29:47 - Robotics and AI in African Industry
00:31:47 - Why Manufacturing Matters
00:35:19 - Political Challenges and Aristocratic Tendencies
00:37:04 - Ethiopia's Resilience Through Civil War
00:39:30 - Geographic Challenges and Intra-African Trade
00:42:59 - Land Abundance vs. Asian Scarcity
00:45:12 - Resource Control and Inequality
00:47:12 - Travel Recommendations
00:50:03 - Financial Systems and Development
00:53:41 - African development stories and future prospects
00:54:15 - Closing Discussion
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